That fracking debate – part 2

This from Alan Tootill –

But before we quote his comments, it seems that the government doesn’t really understand EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery rates) or is hopelessly optimistic about them. Either way that’s rather worrying!

The maths is rather simple – to calculate the number of wells required to extract Cuadrilla’s projected 20 trillion cubic feet of gas you divide it by the EUR expected per well.

If we use the IoD’s rather optimistic figures for US average EURs we’d use 3.2 billion cubic feet per well which would mean we would need 6,250 wells in Lancashire. At 40 wells per pad they’d need 156 well pads. If, however we use the more realistic figures from the USGS which suggest EURS in the region of 1.1 bcf per well we’d need 18,000 wells on over 450 well pads at 40 per pad.

To get 20tcf from 100 x 40 well pads would require an average EUR of 5 bcf per well.

The IoD report claims the Haynesville shale has the highest average EURs in the USA at an average 5.9bcf, but the FT reported geologist and energy consultant Arthur Berman saying “The average EUR in our study is 1.72 Bcf/well, compared to the 6.5-7.5 Bcf/well reported by many operators. Only two wells of the 67 evaluated have an EUR greater than 6.0 Bcf.” The US EIA shows that the highest EUR in the States is indeed in the Haynesville Shale but it is 3.0 bcf per well not th 5.9 reported in the IoD report which comes from an industry study – the average of the EIA figures in about 2 bcf.

Who do YOU believe – an industry sponsored report quoting another industry report or objective commentators?

How many 40 well pads exist in the world today? None as far as we are aware.

Go figure as our American friends would say!

In parliamentary proceedings yesterday people presumably like me were accused by the Southport LibDem MP Pugh of spreading exaggerated claims about the number of wells shale gas development would take. I will stand by any figures I have produced until the “industry” comes up with something different.

In the debate pro-fracker Byles praised to heavens the IOD report, which repeated the Cuadrilla estimates for 100 pads and 4,000 wells in their patch. According to US figures this might produce a mere one or two years of UK gas use – over maybe thirty years of well life.
[Refracktion – 4,000 wells at 1.1bcf EUR per well would give just 4.4tcf = about 18 months UK demand from 20-30 years operations]

Minister Fallon later produced some figures of predicted community benefit. What do they tell us about well numbers?

Fallon said the estimate was 5 to 10 million per pad, and a total of around £1.1 billion for local communities. Across the whole of the country.

Calculators out! See if you agree with me this only represents 110 to 220 pads.

If it’s 110 then Lancs is fracked and the rest of the country gets off frack-free. But on the other estimate the tiny area of Fylde and West Lancs in the PEDL165 would be carrying half the country’s load!

220 pads would generate enough gas for maybe 4 years.

There is something very wrong. There are lies, damned lies, and Fallon fallacy.